You wouldn't know it, but natural gas prices affect food prices

Last week the St. Petersburg Times, well regarded as probably the best newspaper in the state of Florida, ran an article on the increasing price of food around the world. Frong page and above the fold, the article tried to discuss some of the underlying causes of the increase BESIDES the increase in demand for grains caused by biofuels. It was a decent article until the last section when the author totally blew a crucial fact.

I suggest you read, and then read my follow up email to the journalist. I may have been a tad harsh on him, but it seems like a journalist for a major newspaper should do a little more complete research rather than just draw conclusions from his assumptions.

"Instead of biofuel, other global trends starve Haiti"
http://www.tampabay.com/news/world/article465408.ece


_____________________________________________________________

Mr. Adams,

I am glad you went indepth on some of the many reasons for rising food prices, but I feel like you REALLY dropped the ball on a huge component of the increase. You posit a strong correlation between increased corn yields and increased fertilizer costs (168% since 2000).

My first thought was.."well, that's is bad logic" An average reader reading your column can even see the fallacy given what you told them: more corn, less soy and rice, Did total acres in production go up or does corn use more fertilizer than soy and rice per acre?

Then I remember something in a college class call "Conservation of Natural Resources" The basic idea (with some rough stats plugged in from quick research): industrial fertilizers are produced with huge quanties of AMMONIA. To create (afix nitrogen molecules) AMMONIA, massive amounts of NATURAL GAS are used. Upwards of 90% of the cost of AMMONIA is the NATURAL GAS used to afix nitrogen. US natural gas wellhead prices: Jan 2000=$2.6/Kcubicfeet, Jan 2008=$6.99. Price difference=$4.39 Price Difference as ratio of Original Cost: 4.39/2.6= 1.69, as a percentage increase that is 169%.
http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2003/4-14-2003/natgasn.html
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm

Those are rough numbers just on wellhead price, not wholesale, import, commerical or industrial delivery, but isn't that a great coincidence?

I am no agricultural economist, but I am going to bet the farm on this one: The greatest SINGLE cost behind fertilizer increase is the increase in the price of natural gas. AWESOME ARTICLE! Besides dropping the ball on this one. Feel free to call me tonight or tomorrow early if you want to real quick chat. Or call an agricultural economist from some university. I am sure they have those, right?
_______________________________________________________________

My response to an asinine comment

Okay, I don’t watch too much TV, and have always loathed anything that is too popular, but this year I have been watching some American Idol on YouTube. This past week was Idol Gives Back or something about giving to charity, and each contestant picked a song of inspiration. Together they performed a few numbers that are generally inspirational. One they chose was "Shout to the Lord", a contemporary Christian song popular in many evangelical sects. AI removed the world "Jesus" and replaced it with "sheperd", but the rest of the song has imagery that any Christian will recognize, but that also speaks to persons of other faiths. I didn’t even catch that they took Jesus out until I read that they did. I personally was surprised to hear this kind of song on AI because I thought it was risky for their audience (people who consume popular culture by the shovel full), not just because I am not used to Christian music in the media mainstream.

Fine. It was a group number that needed to be inspirational, and that speaks to people. The other group number was "Seasons of Love" from RENT, a song that focuses on love and friends, but comes from a play full of gay people, drugs, rock music, straight sex, AIDS, New York City, vulgarity, and with a very skeptical, liberal, secular bent. Sounds fair to me. They sang the "nice" song from a risque modern play. They sang a VERY popular Christian song, but changed the reference to Jesus, thus expanding the audience by at least a billion Muslims who will still get the imagery of shepherd, savoir, and a tower of refuge and strenth.

But Christians are bitching. I happened across one blog about it, and got pissed. So I am ranting. One person suggested that the previous contestants that were openly gay would have objected to singing the song had they have still been on the show. Asinine. Rather, what an ass!

Here is part of what this person said:
"I wonder what would have happened if the openly gay singers like David Hernandez and Danny Noreiga were still on? The song was left pretty ’safe’, though, from my view, was still focused on Christian imagery. I don’t know if they would have balked."

This was my response:
"I find your comment about the possibility of openly gay singers "balking" over singing a Christian song plain asinine. Assuming that openly gay people are or are not Christian is prejudice, plain and simple. LGBT people are all over the spectrum when it comes to spirituality, everything from atheist to evangelical Christian.

I thought the night was supposed to be about inspiration and drawing people together to do good. In drawing out everyones better angels, I think coming together over a low common denominator like, say, HUMANITY, is quite appropriate.

Calling forth the images of "the wonders of your mighty love" shouldn’t be reserved to Christians or be used, in this sense, to proselytize. People the world over respect the music of other people, but music that speaks to people directly can help bond humanity together. Common language, themes, ideas, etc, can help everyone who listens understand that humans the world over share core values and cultural imagery.

In this setting, I am sure even some CHRISTIANS feel a little uncomfortable with the idea of asking for charity only through the lense of Christian charity. I think many Americans believe in charity because we are wealthy country and it is a human tragedy that many live in squalor while a slim minority of humanity reaps the benefits of globalization, technology, and capital."

Hell, shouldn’t they have been concerned with perfect Mormon boy David Archuleta (a current favorite to win) singing a song that comes from a worldy play? This just burns me I guess. I grew up Catholic. I still practice (sort of). I sing the contemporary worship sounds because they lift me up and inspire me and make me feel connected to something bigger. Hell, the only reason I even go to Mass any more is to sing in the choir. I leave just as much of a skeptic though, doubting the divinity of Jesus and questioning whether there is anything more than just some bigger thing that is so mysterious that all we can even imagine about it is utterly ridiculous and stupid.

And by the way, let’s be real: that little boy David Archuleta has HOMO written all over him. Give him a few years, time to escape from family and the Mormon church, and he will be singing showtunes on Broadway and giving speeches thanking some ridiculously good-looking stud for his support over the years. I love him to death, he is talented and cute, and maybe he is not actually gay, but let’s be real....

So I am going to leave you with two things.
1) the link to blog article so you can read it for yourself and
2) a song. A very interesting song in that it has changed over time. The orginal score was part of a larger patriotic piece called "Finlandia" by Jean Sibelius that was changed into a stand alone piece called "Finlandia Hymn" that quickly became a pseudo anthem of Finland. It was so beautiful though, the music, that an international version was written with lyrics that almost all nations on earth could identify with patriotically, but with a great respect for the peoples of all other nations. This is the version that most of us know as "This is my song." Here is a link to the different versions of the lyrics, check it out to see how it was changed to draw the whole world into the audience. This song literally makes me cry when I here it done well. It is beautiful and really speaks to the fact that we are all humans on this earth and that others have feelings and passions just as real as our own.

Link to the video in case my embed doesn’t work!


http://www.youtube.com/v/pCjuxePRyCo

75 years ago today! Celebrate folks!

April 7th, 1933 - Prohibition ends, Utah becomes 38th state to ratify 21st Amendment

I think we should all celebrate this momentous occasion by going out tonight and enjoying your favorite brew, spirit, cordial, or vintage. Better yet! Buy one for a friend, lover or family member! Buy a locally produced product, like local wines or microbrews and support a local, more energy effecient economy!

Alcohol truly does make the world go around! Charities wouldn’t raise a dime if there wasn’t a bar at functions, no one would go to college (but those who did would probably graduate at a higher rate!), and hell, even cars run on alcohol!

Celebrate!!!

(and post below why you are thankful for ALCOHOL!!)